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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 17:25 UTC on 15 December 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 18:00 UTC ON 16 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (7 pm EST) ON 17 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16 - 17 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 50, 20, 10 (16 - 19 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO
   ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO DELAWARE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO POLAND TO BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

   NEW ZELAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF
   ACTIVITY MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A strong X-class flare observed on 15 December was associated with a
coronal mass ejection that is expected to impact the Earth anytime after
approximately 16:00 UTC on 16 December with a preferred impact time near
22:00 UTC on 16 December (or 5 pm EST over North America). This disturbance
is not expected to be as strong as the one that impacted on the 14th.
However, it should still be capable of producing periods of moderate to
strong auroral storming over widespread mid-latitude regions. A similar
morphology to the last disturbance is likely to be observed, with the
strongest portion of the disturbance commencing several hours after the
impact.

     This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on
17 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For
updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **