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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 04:40 UTC, 24 Nov 2008
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 00:00 UTC (7 pm EST) ON 26 NOV 2008

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 25 NOVEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 25-26 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 15, 10 (25 NOV - 28 NOV)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EXTREME NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN MONTANA
     TO NORTH DAKOTA TO DARK-SKY SITES OF MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
     NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO FINLAND TO SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     Effects of a well placed coronal hole is producing stronger than normal
solar wind conditions capable of producing periods of moderately strong auroral
activity over the middle latitudes. The disturbance should last approximately
24 to 36 hours before giving way to less energetic activity.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EST) on 26
Nov. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **