LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 20:10 UTC 21 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 23 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 21-22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 21-23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 40, 30, 12 (21 - 24 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW-MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18-36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
   SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
   CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA TO
   UKRAIN TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

   SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA TO SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

SYNOPSIS...

     A low latitude auroral activity watch is being issued following the
arrival of a fairly energetic coronal mass ejection. There is a chance some
dark-sky low-latitude locations may observe activity, particularly during the
next 12 to 18 hours.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
23 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire altogether. For
updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **