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PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
08 FEBRUARY, 2010
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(Based in-part on SEC Data.)
(The final report will be released tommorrow.)
PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 08 FEBRUARY, 2010
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DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 96, 96, 94.
Average 90-day Solar Flux: 78.
Current Middle Latitude A-Index: 4
Current Boulder K-Indices: 2310 000*
Current Planetary K-Indices: 2210 000*
Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 8, 8, 10.
Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 8, 9, 10.
SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
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Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17)
produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. Stereo and
soho/lasco imagery observed cme activity with each of the three
events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated
tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both
white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic
beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional tenflares
observed during the period (both associated with region 1045
events), a C7/sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu tenflare, and a C8/1f at
08/0523Z with a 100 sfu tenflare. A new region was numbered today
as region 1047 (S15E70).
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a
X-class event from region 1045.
The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at
mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for the next three days (09-11 february). These
conditions are forecast due to the recent cme activity.
Event probabilities 09 feb-11 feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 feb-11 feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 02/01/05
** End of Daily Report **