Everyone now agrees that we have finally observed the birth of solar
cycle 23. We have probably been immersed within this new cycle for some
time. According to sunspots, the minimum occurred in May 1996 with an as yet
unofficial smoothed sunspot number of 8.1. Since then, we have observed a
steady increase in the number of new-cycle sunspots having the proper
new-cycle magnetic polarities. At the time of this writing, most of the new
sunspots which are appearing are new-cycle spots.
According to the number of days in which no sunspots appeared, the cycle
minimum (or maximum number of spotless days) occurred in October 1996 when
there were 26 spotless days. This month also corresponds with the lowest
monthly observed sunspot number of 2.3 (reported by SEC) and 1.8 (according
to the International Relative Sunspot Number [RI]).
In addition, butterfly plots showing the emergence of new solar sunspot
regions according to solar latitude indicates a clear separation in formation
latitudes from old cycle 22 and new cycle 23. There are also many other
parameters which have shown that new cycle 23 is now firmly in-progress.
This conclusion is a mixed-blessing for industry.
Radio communicators can now begin to look forward to an increasingly
productive reign of ionospheric radio communications. In fact, higher-band
high-frequency (HF) radio communications are already beginning to be
observed. By July of 1998 (within the next 12 months), the observed sunspot
number should almost triple in magnitude from a current predicted smoothed
value of 40 for June 1997 (predicted through regression methods) to 109 (plus
or minus 25) by July 1998. This will substantially increase the strength of
the ionosphere. The next year will therefore be an exciting one for radio
communicators.
The predicted smoothed sunspot number over the next 9 years is
predicted to follow this pattern:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1997 019 022 027 030 034 040 044 050 054 060 066 071
1998 077 082 088 093 099 103 109 113 119 123 128 131
1999 136 139 142 146 148 151 153 154 156 157 158 159
2000 160 160 160 160 159 158 157 156 155 154 152 150
2001 148 146 142 140 137 134 131 128 124 121 118 114
2002 111 107 103 100 097 093 089 086 082 079 076 072
2003 069 066 062 060 057 053 051 048 046 043 041 039
2004 036 034 032 030 028 027 024 023 021 020 019 017
2005 016 014 013 012 012 011 010 009 009 008 *** ***
The predicted smoothed 10.7 cm solar radio flux values over the next 9
years is predicted to follow this pattern:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1997 077 080 084 087 091 096 100 105 109 114 119 124
1998 129 134 139 144 149 153 158 162 167 171 175 178
1999 182 185 188 191 193 196 198 199 201 202 203 204
2000 205 205 205 205 204 203 202 201 200 199 197 195
2001 193 191 188 186 183 181 178 175 172 169 166 163
2002 160 156 153 150 147 144 140 137 134 131 128 125
2003 122 119 116 114 111 108 106 103 101 099 097 095
2004 092 091 089 087 085 084 082 081 079 078 077 075
2005 074 073 072 071 071 070 069 068 068 067 *** ***
Satellite operators and users of satellite technology are less impressed
with the onset of this new cycle of activity. The increased number of
sunspots implies an attendant increase in the number of solar flares capable
of spewing out particles that can charge and damage sensitive electronic
components. The number of associated Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
will also increase. This all means that users and owners of satellite
technology will have to be increasingly aware of potential Earth-bound
interplanetary disturbances. The death of the Telstar 401 satellite has been
unofficially attributed to the arrival of such a disturbance, combined with
the effects of higher-than-normal densities of energetically charged
electrons. That particular interplanetary disturbance was about the size of
a mouse when you think of what is yet to come over the next 4 to 6 years.
The largest interplanetary disturbances which we will observe during solar
cycle 23 may be closer in size to an elephant than the small mouse we
observed that may have contributed to the sudden death of Telstar 401. The
overwhelming message which should be sent to users of satellite technology
during this new solar cycle is "be cautious."
Electrical hydro operators have enjoyed several years of quiet
conditions. Nothing similar in magnitude to the events of March 1989 have
been observed, where almost the entire electrical grid of electricity
supplied to the province of Quebec collapsed within less than 2 minutes due
to powerful electrical currents that were induced into Hydro Quebecs
electrical power lines during one of the strongest geomagnetic storms on
record. Since most of the electrical power lines and companies interconnect
their lines, this outage had impacts all across North America. The
additional load drawn from other power companies to compensate for the loss
observed during the Quebec blackout brought many other power companies close
to similar failure conditions. If the situation was slightly worse, other
blackouts across North America could have been observed - possibly making
this a much larger continent-wide type of power blackout instead of a
relatively localized province-wide Quebec blackout.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory studied the effects that a geomagnetic
storm might have on the U.S. economy if the storm was only slightly larger
than the one observed in March 1989. Their estimate of the impact of such a
disturbance to the Gross Domestic Product alone put total economic costs in
the U.S. in the $3 to $6 BILLION dollar range! This assessment, along with
reviews conducted by the North American Electric Reliability Council placed
the 1989 and 1991 geomagnetic storm events in a category equivalent to
hurricane Hugo and the San Fransisco earthquake in its relative impact to the
reliability of the electric power grids in North America. That's a sobering
thought for hydro operators and everyone reliant upon electricity!
The ability to predict conditions condusive to such large storm events
will receive a considerable boost later this year when NASA's ACE satellite
(Advanced Composition Explorer) is due to be launched. This satellite will
provide near-continuous sampling of the space environment upstream of the
Earth. It will provide as much as about 60 minutes of lead-time to the
arrival of disturbances at the Earth. This should be sufficient time to
allow hydro operators to prepare and watch for the damaging conditions that
can follow interplanetary disturbances.
Predictions of geomagnetic activity show that the number of minor, major
and severe geomagnetic storms will steadily increase. The year with the
maximum number of minor storm days is expected in the year 2005 during the
decline of solar cycle 23 when the occurrence frequency of geoeffective
coronal holes will reach a maximum. Over 40 minor storm days are expected in
the year 2005. During the solar maximum year of 2000, coronal mass ejection
induced minor storms should number at about 30 during the year. This is more
than double the number of minor storm days expected during 1997. Major
geomagnetic storming is expected to peak in the years between 1999 and 2002.
Severe geomagnetic storming, which is very difficult to predict, should peak
in frequency between the years 1999 and 2005 with the preferred year of peak
severe storm frequency being 2002.
People interested in observing aurora's will be happy to know that we
are well on our way to seeing larger events. Over the next 3 to 6 years, we
will see many very significant auroral displays that should cover much of the
U.S. and all of Canada. Activity observed during the last 3 years has been
very miniscule compared to the events we can expect to observe during this
new cycle. The largest of these events should be sufficiently intense to
produce visible auroral activity from as far south as Florida! Although this
is horrendous news for satellite users, radio communicators, navigators,
surveyors and others, it is exciting news for those who love to watch for
these awesomely powerful atmospheric displays of activity.
The frequency and magnitude of solar flares is also expected to increase
considerably over the next 3 to 6 years. Over the last few years, most of
the solar flares we have observed have been very small and insignificant. As
we approach the new millenium, the influence and power output of solar flares
could increase by several orders of magnitude. The largest solar flares of
this new solar cycle will almost certainly be at least 10,000 times more
powerful than the majority of smaller flares we have observed over the last
couple of years. These rogue flares could begin to be observed as early as
1998 with a peak expected in the years between 1999 and 2003.
Broken down, the number of M-class flares observed during an entire year
should follow a pattern similar to this:
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
15 40 220 530 370 540
The number of X-class flares observed during an entire year should
behave similar to this:
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1 5 15 40 30 50
Major proton flare events capable of increasing proton densities in the
near-Earth space environment are expected to reach a maximum between the
years 1999 and 2003 with a double-maximum predicted for the years 2000 and
2002. The number of predicted solar proton events is expected to increase
slightly in 1998 and then more than triple between 1998 and 1999. There
could be a fairly copious number of solar proton events during cycle 23.
Estimates range from about 8 to as high as about 16 per year during the years
of maximum proton flaring.
These are just a few of the events we can expect to observe during this
new solar cycle.
The new millenium should be ushered in a BANG! Periods of solar
activity will be observed that will be capable of literally shaking space!
(To help accomodate the increased demand for information during solar cycle
23, we have redesigned our web pages to serve more as a central hub for
information. Everything from current solar and geophysical indices to
current auroral activity sighting reports, daily reports, alerts and
warnings, and much more can now be found at: http://www.spacew.com)
** End of Cycle Satus Report **