/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 26 OCTOBER, 2010 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 OCTOBER, 2010 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 299, 10/26/10 10.7 FLUX=086.1 90-AVG=081 SSN=074 BKI=3233 1221 BAI=009 BGND-XRAY=B1.1 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=3222 1222 PAI=008 BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,*** DEV-AVG=*** NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C1.1 @ 0110UT XRAY-MIN= A9.9 @ 1900UT XRAY-AVG= A4.0 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00 GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00 FLUXFCST=STD:084,084,084;SESC:084,084,084 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,005,008/007,005,008 KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=000,000 27DAY-KP= WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 OCT 10 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 26 OCT 10 are: 3o 2- 2+ 2o 1- 2o 2o 2o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 26 OCT 10 are: 15 6 9 7 3 7 7 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 26 OCT is: 4.3E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 88.4, 86.1, 85.5 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Region 1117 (N21W15) produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest a C2.5 x-ray event at 25/2212Z. A cme (estimated plane-of-sky velocity 375 km/s) was observed off the southwest limb, first viewed on goes-15 sxi imagery at approximately 26/0300Z. This cme was likely associated with a B6.5 x-ray event at 26/0311Z from region 1115 (S31W75). The cme appeared to be earth directed. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be predominately very low with a chance for C-class events and a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from region 1117. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (27 - 28 october). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on day three (29 october) in response to the cme observed on 26 october. Event probabilities 27 oct-29 oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 oct-29 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/20 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================= Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z ----------------------------------------------------- Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 1113 N17W92 136 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 1115 S31W75 120 0120 Hsx 08 01 Alpha 1117 N21W15 059 0360 Ehi 11 31 Beta-Gamma 1119 N22W49 094 0000 Axx 01 01 Alpha 1118 N14W31 078 Plage Regions Due to Return 27 Oct to 29 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 OCTOBER, 2010 ------------------------------------------------------ Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 1129 1132 1134 B2.1 100 ** End of Daily Report **