/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 07 FEBRUARY, 2010 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 FEBRUARY, 2010 ------------------------------------------------------------ !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 038, 02/07/10 10.7 FLUX=071.1 90-AVG=078 SSN=051 BKI=1110 1122 BAI=003 BGND-XRAY=B2.2 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=1000 0112 PAI=003 BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,*** DEV-AVG=*** NT SWF=01:004 XRAY-MAX= M4.7 @ 0235UT XRAY-MIN= B1.7 @ 0150UT XRAY-AVG= B1.1 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT GOES9-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES9-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G9-AVG=+00,+00,+00 GOES8-MAX=N:+000NT@ 2359UT GOES8-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2359UT G8-AVG=+00,+00,+00 FLUXFCST=STD:092,094,094;SESC:092,094,094 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,008,008/010,009,008 KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=006,003 27DAY-KP=0222 2211 1200 0012 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 FEB 10 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 07 FEB 10 are: 1- 0o 0o 0o 0+ 1- 1+ 2+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 07 FEB 10 are: 3 0 0 0 2 3 5 9 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 07 FEB is: 1.2E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.1, 71.1, 69.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was high. Region 1045 (N23W01) produced two M-class events during the past 24 hours. The first was a M1 at 06/2137Z and the second was a M6/1n at 07/0224Z. The soho/lasco C2 imagery observed a cme off the east limb with the first event and a full halo with the second event. The M6 x-ray event had an associated eit wave, and a tenflare of 170sfu. This region has retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration with a possible delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots. A new region was numbered today as region 1046 (N25E65). Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with M-class events likely. There is a slight chance for a X-class event from region 1045. The geomagnetic field was quiet. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next three days (08-10 february) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and cme effects. Event probabilities 08 feb-10 feb Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 feb-10 feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================= Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z ----------------------------------------------------- Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 1043 N23W73 325 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 1045 N23W01 253 0320 Fkc 19 18 Beta-Gamma 1046 N25E65 187 0030 Bxo 04 02 Beta 1044 N18W62 314 Plage Regions Due to Return 08 Feb to 10 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo 1042 N21 132 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 FEBRUARY, 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0220 0234 0239 1045 N21E10 M6.4 1n 570 170 0251 0254 0305 950 0254 0257 0322 1000 0312 0316 0319 190 1333 1337 1339 B7.1 100 1721 1721 1721 290 1833 1836 1840 1045 N22E04 B8.3 Sf 100 1927 1927 1927 200 1930 1930 1930 190 1946 1946 1946 170 1949 1949 1949 170 2039 2039 2039 100 2043 2043 2043 100 2104 2104 2104 130 2107 2107 2107 190 2128 2128 2128 1000 2152 2152 2152 120 2225 2225 2225 160 2228 2231 2233 C1.0 400 2253 2253 2253 280 2256 2256 2256 100 2318 2318 2318 420 2352 2352 2352 230 2355 2355 2355 250 ** End of Daily Report **