/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 08 FEBRUARY, 2010 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based in-part on SEC Data.) (The final report will be released tommorrow.) PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 08 FEBRUARY, 2010 ------------------------------------------------------------- DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu. Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 96, 96, 94. Average 90-day Solar Flux: 78. Current Middle Latitude A-Index: 4 Current Boulder K-Indices: 2310 000* Current Planetary K-Indices: 2210 000* Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 8, 8, 10. Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 8, 9, 10. SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY --------------------------- Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17) produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. Stereo and soho/lasco imagery observed cme activity with each of the three events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional tenflares observed during the period (both associated with region 1045 events), a C7/sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu tenflare, and a C8/1f at 08/0523Z with a 100 sfu tenflare. A new region was numbered today as region 1047 (S15E70). Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a X-class event from region 1045. The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next three days (09-11 february). These conditions are forecast due to the recent cme activity. Event probabilities 09 feb-11 feb Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 feb-11 feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/35 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 02/01/05 ** End of Daily Report **