MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 20:45 UTC, 28 Sept 2007
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 28 SEPT 2007

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 SEPTEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28-29 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 27, 24, 12, 10 (28 SEPT - 1 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW - MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EXTREME NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN MONTANA
     TO NORTH DAKOTA TO DARK-SKY SITES OF MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
     NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO FINLAND TO SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     A solar disturbance is currently in-progress and is producing enhanced
periods of geomagnetic and auroral activity. There is a chance some middle
latitude locations may spot periods of auroral activity during the next 12 to
24 hours. No significant auroral storming is anticipated, and the brightness
of the moon will hamper the view fairly substantially. Nevertheless, the risk
remains that activity may become sporadically strong enough to view from some
middle latitude locations. The disturbance is expected to begin decaying on
29 September.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 29
Sept. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **