[Finalsolar] Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 January

[finalsolar at spacew.com]

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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 JANUARY, 2005

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                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 JANUARY, 2005
-----------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 007, 01/07/05
10.7 FLUX=083.5  90-AVG=105        SSN=022      BKI=1001 6637  BAI=040
BGND-XRAY=A6.5     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=1001 6647  PAI=037
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.7   @ 1846UT    XRAY-MIN= A4.4   @ 0332UT   XRAY-AVG= A7.8
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT   BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT  BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
GOES9-MAX=P:+187NT@ 2353UT   GOES9-MIN=P:-126NT@ 2232UT  G9-AVG=+106,+11,+16
GOES8-MAX=P:+187NT@ 2353UT   GOES8-MIN=P:-126NT@ 2232UT  G8-AVG=+106,+11,+16
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,090,090;SESC:085,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,012,005/040,020,008
    KFCST=**** **** **** ****  27DAY-AP=015,036   27DAY-KP=1132 4344 5455 4533
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 JAN 05 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 JAN 05 are: 1- 0+ 0o 1+   6- 6- 4- 7o 
      The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 07 JAN 05 are:   3   2   0   5  67  67  22  32 
      Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 07 JAN is: 4.1E+08
      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z:    82.5,    83.5,    84.6 sfu.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 715 (N06w59) has
       decayed to a small single polarity sunspot. New region 718 (S09E78)
       was numbered today and was responsible for occasional B-class
       flares. Another active region is rotating into view near S12.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be very
       low to low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from active
       regions near the southeast limb.

            The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
       Transient flow, likely the cme activity from 04 and 05 january,
       impacted the geomagnetic field first at around 07/0900Z. The
       existing elevated solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to just
       over 600 km/s. The major storming followed a period of sustained
       southward bz to near -10 nt between 07/1300 - 1500Z.  A second
       disturbance passed the ace spacecraft at 07/2010Z. Only a weak
       enhancement was observed on the plasma measurements; however, the
       imf bz turned sharply southward to near -15 nt. The greater than 2
       mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
       this period. The energetic electrons, which have been sustained at
       high levels since 03 january, dropped below the high threshold at
       approximately 07/1900Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow
       from the cme activity on 04 and 05 january will continue the current
       disturbance through 08 january. Periods of minor to major storming
       are expected on the 8th. Quiet to active levels are expected on 09
       january, before gradually returning to predominantly quiet
       conditions on 10 january.

            Event probabilities 08 jan-10 jan

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 jan-10 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/15
                        Minor storm           15/10/10
                        Major-severe storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/30/20
                        Minor storm           30/15/10
                        Major-severe storm    20/05/01


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SEC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
=======================================================

 Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 07/2400Z 
-----------------------------------------------------
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
0715 N06W59   341  0020 Hax  01   01 Alpha
0718 S09E78   204  0060 Hax  02   01 Alpha
Regions Due to Return 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Nmbr Lat    Lo
None


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 JANUARY, 2005
------------------------------------------------------
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None


**  End of Daily Report  **