From aurorawatch at spacew.com Wed Jan 20 17:26:03 2010 From: aurorawatch at spacew.com (Mid or Low Latitude Aurora Watches) Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2010 10:26:03 -0700 Subject: [Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 20-21 January 2010 Message-ID: <4B573CAB.10303@spacew.com> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH Issued: 17:30 UTC on 20 January 2010 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com Valid beginning at: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY Valid until: 12:00 UTC (7 am EST) ON 21 December High risk period: 20 DEC (UTC DAYS) Moderate risk period: 20-21 DEC Predicted activity indices: 18, 12, 5, 5 (20 DEC - 23 DEC) Potential magnitude of Middle latitude auroral activity: LOW TO MODERATE Potential duration of this activity: MAIN BELT = 6-12 HOURS MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS Estimated optimum observing conditions: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT Expected lunar interference: NONE Overall opportunity for observations from middle latitudes: FAIR Auroral activity *may* be observed approximately north of a line from... (this line is valid *only* if favorable storm conditions occur) CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO DARK SKY SITES OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO DARK SKY SITES OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO DARK SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. Auroral activity *may* also be observed approximately north of a line from... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR) EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND ARE LESS LIKELY, BUT MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF WEAKER ACTIVITY. Synopsis... Effects of a transient disturbance in the solar wind are elevating levels of geomagnetic activity. Currently, conditions are become somewhat favorable for producing sporadic periods of enhanced auroral activity. Although most of the activity will be visible over the high latitude regions, there is a chance some of that activity might bleed south far enough to become visible to middle latitude observers. This activity could last approximately 12 to 24 hours before giving way to quieter conditions. This watch will remain valid through 12:00 UTC (7 am EST) on 21 January. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html ** End of Watch ** -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: