[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 06-09 May 2006

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 16:00 UTC on 06 May 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 06 MAY
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 09 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 - 07 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 06 - 08 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 15, 12 (06 MAY - 09 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18-24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
   TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
   RUSSIA.

   SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A recurrent coronal hole based disturbance (a corotating interaction
region) is beginning to affect the Earth and is expected to produce an
intensification of geomagnetic and auroral activity during the next 6 to 48
hours. Periods of minor auroral storm conditions are possible in the upper
middle latitude regions. Higher latitudes should see more substantial periods
of storm activity. No significant mid or low latitude observations are
anticipated, although sporadic bursts of activity may be strong enough to
observe over mid-latitudes despite the increasing luminosity of the moon. The
most intense phase of activity is expected within the next 24 to 48 hours.

     This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
09 May. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **