[Aurorawatch] Middle-Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 19 March 2006

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 00:15 UTC, 19 March 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:15 UTC ON 19 MARCH (7 pm EST)
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 19 MARCH

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 19 MARCH
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 19-20 MARCH

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 20, 12, 10 (19 - 22 MARCH)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW - MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH, AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EXTREME NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN MONTANA
     TO NORTH DAKOTA TO DARK-SKY SITES OF MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
     NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO FINLAND TO SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     A coronal hole based disturbance is proving to be a bit more
geoeffective than originally anticipated. Auroral activity will be
dominantly at active levels over the next 24 hours, but should momentariliy
increase to periods of minor storm conditions at times throughout the local
night. As a result, some middle latitude locations (particularly the more
poleward locations) may spot periods of enhanced auroral activity during the
next 24 hours. No significant auroral storming is anticipated and the most
intense activity (which could become quite impressive) will be primarily
confined to the high latitude zone (northern Canada, Alaska, northern
Finland, etc).

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on 19
March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **