[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 27-28 August

[Mid or Low Latitude Aurora Watches]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 16:50 UTC on 27 August 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 28 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 - EARLY 28 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27-28 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 27, 12, 8 (27 AUG - 30 AUG)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18-36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
   TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
   RUSSIA.

   SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A recurrent coronal hole disturbance is impacting the Earth. Periods of
moderately strong auroral activity will be possible over the high and
upper-middle latitude regions. Last solar rotation, this disturbance produced
periods of fairly strong localized auroral storming. A repeat is possible,
although a bit less likely this time around. Nevertheless, areas near the
U.S. / Canadian border and north thereof should be able to spot periods of
auroral activity this evening.

     This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
28 August. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **