[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 17 Aug 2006

[Mid or Low Latitude Aurora Watches]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 19:30 UTC on 17 August 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 18 AUGUST
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 20 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 19 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 18-21 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 8, 30, 20, 12 (18 AUG - 21 AUG)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR / PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL TO LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA
   TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
   RUSSIA.

   SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A minor solar flare associated coronal mass ejection (CME) is currently
enroute to the Earth. Impact is expected early on the 19th (UTC time, or late
evening / early morning hours of the 18th / 19th over North America). This
disturbance has the potential to produce periods of moderately strong auroral
activity over the high and upper middle latitude regions. Observations of
activity into the central mid-latitudes is less likely, but still notably
possible. The CME is expected to have swept up the heliospheric current
sheet, which will complicate the interaction that occurs with the Earth's
magnetic field when it arrives. As a result, it is a more difficult to
estimate the strength of the disturbance prior to its arrival. Periods of
minor to perhaps weak major auroral storming will be possible after the
disturbance arrives. At the present time, best estimates place it's arrival
sometime between approximately 00 UTC and 12 UTC on 19 August, with a central
estimate near 05 GMT.

     This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
20 August. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **