[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 13-16 April

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 16:35 UTC, 13 April 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 16 April

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: INITIAL LEADING EDGE IS ARRIVING

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 13 - 15 APRIL
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 13 - 16 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 30, 25, 17 (13 - 16 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW - MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EXTREME NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN MONTANA
     TO NORTH DAKOTA TO DARK-SKY SITES OF MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
     NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO FINLAND TO SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     Another coronal hole based disturbance is in the process of arriving. It
is expected to yield several days of enhanced auroral activity - mostly
within the higher latitude regions north of the U.S. / Canada border, but
with periods of substorm activity that should become visible over the more
mid-latitude regions as well. The near-full phase of the moon will
substantially inhibit observations, particularly of activity near the
horizon. As a result, this disturbance is not expected to produce
particularly impressive activity. However, some localized substorms could be
fairly strong.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 16
April. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **