[Aurorawatch] Extended Low Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 18-20 Jan

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Extended: 13:50 UTC 18 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 20 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 18-19 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 18-20 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 80, 100, 30, 12 (18 - 21 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18-24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24-36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
   SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
   CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA TO
   UKRAIN TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

     What may be the strongest coronal mass ejection yet observed from active
sunspot region 10720 is due to impact the Earth late on 18 or early on 19
January (UTC time, which is equivalent to the late afternoon or evening hours
over North America today). Tonight may be the best opportunity for observers
to see periods of auroral activity. If predictions hold true, periods of
major to severe auroral storm activity will materialize sometime after the
disturbance arrives. This is a potentially significant event.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
18 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire altogether. For
updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **