[Aurorawatch] Updated Prognosis for Auroral Activity - 16 January 2005

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH UPDATE
Updated Prognosis, Issued: 22:30 UTC on 16 January 2005

Prognosis:

The LOW LATITUDE Auroral Activity Watch is presently active and will remain 
active through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on 18 January.

The first of two potentially significant solar coronal mass ejections is on 
approach to the Earth. We expect impact of the first CME (from the major 
class M8.6 flare of 15 January) anytime within the next 6 hours. It should 
be followed thereafter by a second potentially stronger impact from the CME 
associated with the X2.6 flare of late 15 January. The combined influence of 
these two CME's is expected to result in periods of strong geomagnetic and 
auroral (northern lights) storm activity. Auroral activity may become 
visible into the lower latitudes tonight and into tomorrow. Observers are 
encouraged to remain vigilant.

Notices of impact will be posted on www.spacew.com in the Forecast Notes 
section, but will probably appear first from individuals in our discussion 
forum (www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html). It may take several hours after 
the disturbance arrives for intense auroral storming to commence. More will 
be known once the first of the disturbances arrives in a few hours.

Additional strong solar flare activity is expected over the next 6 to 12 
hours that could produce even more Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection 
activity. The next several days may therefore be associated with pulses of 
energetic auroral activity.

**  End of Update **