[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 12-13 January

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 02:50 UTC, 12 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 13 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 12 JANUARY
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 12-13 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 22, 14, 12 (12 - 15 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 TO 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO
     WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SCOTLAND TO SOUTHERN NORWAY TO SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     Effects of a coronal hole based disturbance will elevate levels of
auroral activity tonight and tommorrow. Periods of activity may become
visible over middle latitude dark-sky regions, particularly tonight. Some of
the substorming tonight has the potential of becoming rather strong. Less
intense activity is expected tomorrow that will affect primarily the higher
latitude regions. The near-new phase of the moon will provide optimal
observing conditions.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
13 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: www.spacew.com. For discussions of activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **