[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 07-08 January

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 22:00 UTC, 07 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 08 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 JANUARY
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07-08 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 18, 10, 10 (07 - 10 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 TO 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
     MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO
     CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for producing periods of
moderate to strong auroral storm activity over many middle and high latitude
regions. A strong southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field is
in-progress. The auroral oval is also in the process of migrating
equatorward. The conditions should result in periods of visible auroral
activity over many middle latitude regions, particularly if the southward
configuration of the solar wind magnetic fields continues.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
08 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: www.spacew.com. For discussions of activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **