[Aurorawatch] Mid-Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 24 August

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 06:50 UTC on 24 August 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 24 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 22, 15, 10 (24 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *AUGUST* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN WASHINGTONN STATE TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH
   DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF
   NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *AUGUST* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SCOTLAND TO DENMARK TO NORWAY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN
   RUSSIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VISIBLE ACTIVITY TO BE OBSERVED
   FROM NORTHERN GERMANY.

   SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     Effects of a coronal mass ejection from a recent major M5 solar flare
are now being observed. The disturbance is not spectacular at the present
time, but still has the potential to produce periods of active to storm-level
auroral activity over the next several (3 to 18) hours. Lunar luminosity will
inhibit views of activity, but periods of activity should still be strong
enough to be observed from many dark-sky mid-latitude locations.

     This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
24 August. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **