[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 05-07 April

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 00:00 UTC on 05 April 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 07 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 05 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05-07 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 20, 18 (05 - 08 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = ~24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = ~24-72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
   MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
   TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN MAINE TO NEW BRUNSWICK.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY
   TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

   EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

SYNOPSIS...

     A well placed solar coronal hole high speed solar wind stream is
affecting the Earth. Periods of low to moderately strong auroral
activity is possible over the next several days. The strongest upper-middle
and high latitude activity may occur within the next 24 to 48 hours.
Thereafter, mid-latitude observations should subside while high latitudes
continue to observe periods of auroral activity for several additional days.
Although no significant storm activity is anticipated, there is a notable
chance some dark-sky mid-latitude locations may observe periods of stronger
substorming that could produce brief displays.

     This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
07 April. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **