[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 14-16 Sept

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 07:20 UTC, 13 September 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 15:00 UTC (11 am EDT) 14 SEPTEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 01:00 UTC 15 SEPT (9 pm EDT 14 Sept)
 
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 15 SEPTEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 20, 35, 17 (13 - 16 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO ILLINOIS
     TO OHIO TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
     NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

     The arrival of a coronal mass ejection will increase levels of
geomagnetic and auroral activity toward storm levels late on 14 or early on
15 September (UTC time). The potential exists for periods of moderately
strong auroral activity to become visible over fairly widespread middle
latitude regions.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
16 September. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information,
visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of
current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **