[Aurorawatch] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 11-13 Dec

[aurorawatch at spacew.com]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 04:10 UTC, 10 December 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC (7 pm EST) 11 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 13 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 12 DECEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11-13 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 24, 16, 12 (10 - 13 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW-MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
     MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE 
TO
     VERMONT TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY TO
     SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.


SYNOPSIS...

     An earthward directed coronal mass ejection is expected to increase
levels of auroral activity on 11 and 12 December (UTC days). This is a 
slower
moving coronal mass ejection and probably won't have a significant impact.
Nevertheless, it may have the potential to produce periods of minor
geomagnetic and auroral storming over the high and some middle latitude
regions, particularly on 12 December. The strongest period of auroral
activity should be observed over North America during the local evening 
hours
of 11 December (which corresponds to the early UTC hours of 12 December). 
The
slower nature of this disturbance means that conditions may remain capable 
of
producing visible levels of auroral activity through a portion of 13
December.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
13 December. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information,
visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of
current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Watch  **