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| | | |-+  December 13/14, 2006		 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. « previous next »
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Author Topic: December 13/14, 2006  (Read 47766 times)
KeithinKY
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« Reply #15 on: 14 December 2006, 02:44:12 UTC »
Here is a site that shows an animation of the shock wave as it approaches Earth.

http://gse.gi.alaska.edu/recent/javascript_movie.html 

This prediction places its arrival around daybreak EST.  They also say it may take aprox 12 hours after the initial impact to energize the atmosphere.  Anyone care to elaborate?  Sad   
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Dave
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« Reply #16 on: 14 December 2006, 02:53:41 UTC »
Nice link, didnt have that one...thanks for posting it.
I like keeping tabs on this one...
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

All i can say is i hope it arrives tonight, early  Smiley

Dave
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41.01N  81.61W
Corrected Magnetic Latitude 51
KeithinKY
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« Reply #17 on: 14 December 2006, 03:03:37 UTC »
Thats a good site also.  I've had that one for sometime.  There used to be a link on that site where you could download a "movie" of that animation, but I can't find it anymore.
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DW
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« Reply #18 on: 14 December 2006, 03:41:21 UTC »
Yeah, I'm not so sure we're going to see this thing hit at midnight or there about. (the spacew forecast) I'm looking forward to their next update to see if they've got any new info on the CME...
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Tony Miller
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« Reply #19 on: 14 December 2006, 04:03:12 UTC »
Lurker for long time, haven't been active for over a year.  Heading out to see the Geminids tonight anyway... hoping the impact occurs and the early window happens.  Might head out tomorrow evening if the indicators warrent -- but set to cloud up here in Ohio roughly midnight tomorrow night.   Glad to be back, and hoping for that light show!

Tony M
central OH
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BobF
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« Reply #20 on: 14 December 2006, 13:23:38 UTC »
Haven't been back to these boards in a while, but since I saw the report of the X flare and new it was probably Earth directed, I thought I would check back in to see what's up.  Currently, I haven't seen the predicted time of impact, so if someone could catch me up, I would appreciate it.
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unlivingsava
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« Reply #21 on: 14 December 2006, 13:31:08 UTC »
impacttime 18 UTC estimated by SEC, can be earlier can be later...
IMF will go north at the time of the impact and will later go south
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BlueBrained
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« Reply #22 on: 14 December 2006, 13:59:57 UTC »
IMPACT!!!

Solar wind velocity just went way up.
« Last Edit: 14 December 2006, 14:36:27 UTC by BlueBrained » Logged
Ellisville, MO USA
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BlueBrained
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« Reply #23 on: 14 December 2006, 14:04:37 UTC »
Bz heading south fast.

Solar wind still increasing.
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Ellisville, MO USA
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BethKatz17582
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« Reply #24 on: 14 December 2006, 17:03:59 UTC »
I'd like to take this opportunity to remind guests to the forum that there is more here than you see as a guest.

We've been discussing how to prepare, how reliable the various forecasts are, and what to look for in the various plots. When people start seeing aurora (hopefully not too long from now in Europe and I'm hoping that our friends in New Zealand and Australia have been busy observing), many people will post to discuss their observations and photos.

Over the past 24 hours, we've been seeing a lot of guests, and that's great. But in your rush to get some news, you may not have noticed that there's a lot more to the forum if you register. If you're still wary, look at the screen shots in the announcement section.

Registering is free. We'd like you to join our community.
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mh6
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« Reply #25 on: 14 December 2006, 17:24:25 UTC »
Looks like NOAA thinks this should last for awhile, at least until it gets dark here in the US.

A geomagnetic storm began on December 14 at 1416 UTC (9:16 A.M. EST). A solar flare on 13 December at 0240 UTC (12 December, 9:40 P.M. EST) from NOAA Region 930 produced strong radio blackouts (R3) and an associated moderate (S2) solar radiation storm. A large Earth-directed coronal mass ejection was also observed with this event, producing today’s geomagnetic storming. Strong to severe (G3 – G4) geomagnetic storming is expected to last through 15 December. Region 930 is a large sunspot group which is still rotating across the visible disk. Because of the current position of Region 930, additional activity has greater potential to quickly impact Earth.
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Milwaukee
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« Reply #26 on: 14 December 2006, 18:43:06 UTC »
Looks like a good show is in progress...Kp  of 7 with the magnetic field alternating abruptly...will know soon enough.
What a loooong day at work this is!
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btippett
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« Reply #27 on: 14 December 2006, 18:56:32 UTC »
Cary's latest forecast stated:  "However, during the following 12 to 18 hours, the IMF is expected to rotate into a southward orientation and produce possibly strong to intense storm conditions."

Any update to this?  12-18 hours following impact would be 0200-0800 UTC.

Gosh seems like it's been years since I was on this website
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BobF
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« Reply #28 on: 14 December 2006, 21:01:53 UTC »
btippett, I know the feeling about not being here for a while.  It even looks like they reset my post numbers.  It says 6.  I must have made over a thousand back when things were going strong. Cheesy  Maybe it only counts posts made to the new forum.  Things quited down dramatically right after it was introduced.
« Last Edit: 14 December 2006, 21:04:32 UTC by BobF » Logged
Jeff VE6EFR
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« Reply #29 on: 14 December 2006, 21:18:42 UTC »
Yes, post count only reflects the posts on the new forum. There was no easy way to combine the old with the new forum. So all of the old posts were lost.
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