December 13/14, 2006

[BlueBrained]

I am confident that this thread will be needed...

[astrophoto]

CME impact could be tonight; perhaps the topic title should be Dec. 13/14, 2006???

[BlueBrained]

CME impact could be tonight; perhaps the topic title should be Dec. 13/14, 2006???

Changed...

[zach]

Well heres my forecast for weather for tommrow and tommrow night

 North Central US: clear for most of southdakota,northdakota and south through kansas fog in some parts of minnesota possibly.Snow in central and western Montana.

South Central US:Clear from eastern colorado ,kansas and east and south some snow possible in colorado but not likely.

West US: Snow in montana, Idaho, washington and Oregon clear to isolated storms in the southwest.

Eastern US: Some fog by the great lakes and in the southeast otherwise isolated rain in the far east by the coast.

Well thats the us forecast im running out of time i have to do some stuff if i can i will do other countries next time.

[BlueBrained]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Updated: 06:15 UTC on 13 December 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN
   MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

   NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY
   MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930 was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December).
The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.

     This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on
15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **

_______________________________________________
Aurorawarn mailing list
Aurorawarn@spacew.com
http://spacew.com/mailman/listinfo/aurorawarn

[auroradude]

Hey and speaking of the weather: Here is a great site for forcasting cloud cover over North America for astronomical purposes.

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/astro/clds_vis_e.html

The similated satellite modeling animations could be very helpful.

[BlueBrained]

Clears skies projected for me.

[babyhobbes]

Looks like the weather will be a toss-up for me.  Partly clear skies projected from 0500-0700 UTC and partly cloudy after that.  Gosh I hope the weather doesn't screw this up.....again.

Good luck to everyone!!

[SherryB]

Looks like the weather will be a toss-up for me.  Partly clear skies projected from 0500-0700 UTC and partly cloudy after that.  Gosh I hope the weather doesn't screw this up.....again.

 Yeah, I know how you feel.    Right now the wind is gusting to 70km/h (42mph) with torrential rain; the 7th or 8th major storm since the beginning of November.  Tonight another storm is forecast...with winds to 100km/h+ (62mph+).  That's approaching hurricane force, but there is a chance of partial clearing.   
 I wonder what photographing au in a near-hurricane is like.   I hope I get to find out 

 Good luck everyone.

[babyhobbes]

Yeah, I know how you feel.    Right now the wind is gusting to 70km/h (42mph) with torrential rain; the 7th or 8th major storm since the beginning of November.  Tonight another storm is forecast...with winds to 100km/h+ (62mph+).  That's approaching hurricane force, but there is a chance of partial clearing.   
 I wonder what photographing au in a near-hurricane is like.   I hope I get to find out 

 Good luck everyone.

Cloudless hurricane!

[Jim Shaffer]

The most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December).

http://sec.noaa.gov/advisories/bulletins.html is predicting impact around 18:00 UTC. 

Which forecast is typically the more accurate?

[mh6]

That's what I'm wondering as well.....NOAA makes it sound like we are all jumping the gun alittle early.

[babyhobbes]

That's what I'm wondering as well.....NOAA makes it sound like we are all jumping the gun alittle early.

I'm kind of surprised no one is responding to this, with so many people logged in, someone must have an opinion about it.

[jch]

I suspect it has to do with the time the prediction was made.  The first prediction was made early on while the second prediction was made some time later.  The later prediction had the benefit of a more thorough analysis of data from solar satellites.  This allows a more accurate estimate of the speed of the CME.  The later prediction is perhaps the more accurate....but then both are PREDICTIONS!

[starguy]

Oh well....I'm completely socked in with clouds at the present time.  Perhaps this "delay" will allow me to get some sleep and have the clouds clear out for tomorrow evening.  In the mean time, we'll just wait for another X-class to occur so we're geared up for the weekend.