X-Class Flares on 09/13/05

[AuroraWatcher]

soo should the CME be hitting us at about midnight, i mean i have to get up early for work at about 8:45, but i want to stay up long enough to see a good show tonight, cause it sounds like this one is gonna be a doozy

and crap..news weather just said there was clouds that were staying around in our area, but ive looked outside and it looks clear, ahh it better not get cloudy on me, im wanting to see some auroras

ive been trying to keep on checking sites and everything, especially those traffic lights, i got all excited when i heard about the huge cme and how it could spark a severe geomagnetic storm

so hopefully it hits soon and i get to see them

im in WV, so how are my chances tonight for seeing them? if its gonna be a way strong one tonight

[BlueBrained]

I would say the chances of a significant storm are very good.  So you should be able to see this event if it is clear in WV.

Anytime now the CME should impact the magnetosphere.

[eclectical]

you guys do know this thing prob did slow down a bit, and may have cannibalized. dont quote me, but it may not arrive till thurs am... i wish it does, cuz its rarely clear here in st john's newfoundland. here's hoping.

[adh]

Sure, the potential for a display is good but one necessary condition is a southward IMF.  Our friends in Europe will recall a particularly intense storm back in Jan 05 that was witnessed in many parts of Europe but by the time darkness fell here in North America, the Bz swung well northward and North America saw very little (I managed to briefly see only a faint arc that the digicam captured as some pale rays.)

Do continue to keep an eye on this forum and also the data found at http://www.spacew.com/ particularly http://www.spacew.com/plots.php.

WRT whether or not you might see things in West Virginia depends on many factors -- some of which have already been outlined in this thread -- though you might find the middle latitude auroral activity warning found at: http://www.spacew.com/www/midlatwrnrpt.html of interest.

Good luck, and clear skies (we've got rain).

[eclectical]

 there was like an hour ago a lil blip in the magnetic field... we'll see. nothing yet...
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
you wnat the speed to rise and the red line (Bz) to drop and stay down to give us any good. this thing will prob last a day, so if you dont see anything overnite, youll prob see it thurs evening. who knows. murphy's law anyone?

[adh]

Or the two hour plot at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_2h.html

[AuroraWatcher]

YAYYY thank you for telling me that, im so anxious now that i cant stop looking out my window, im so anxious to see a fantastic show like i did last november and hope this one can be even more better, the one in november was beautiful, i hope to see another spectacular show, and im gonna stay up as long as i can for them, i just hope the clouds dont decide to creep him and ruin my viewing

awww ecletical, well i send you good vibes that you get to see the show as well

even though im tired and sick, i dont want to miss this show and wouldnt miss it for the world..LOL i hope it hits soon

thanks for all that info adh, i do hope we get some auroras here tonight, last november there was a strong geomagnetic storm and we got alot of aurora actiivity, and it was fantastic

LOL my tv just acted real strange, the voicing of it was all weird and glitching......CME effects? hehehee

[BethKatz17582]

Argh! I guess I should be happy that the skies cleared after much needed rain. But now I have fog. Reminds me of an intense Leonids meteor shower that got fogged over. Last I checked it was clear overhead. I suppose it's too much to expect a corona at 40 N (49 N geomagnetic) although I have seen one.

[eclectical]

AW, ive seen the lights tons of times, and have had times where i go to sleep just before a crazy show but hey its life. rather have a girl with me than lights, well thats tomorrow... could be 2 birds with a stone. regarding those plots, i like the 24 or 6. plus i think we want proton levels to lower before the cme hits, and then show tends to happen 20-60 mins later. im not holding my breath though. AW, if u have a laptop, and really dont wanna miss a thing, watch a movie on a laptop if u have one on a deck and just keep the links open. go for it. itd be real cool if u could see the lights inside an eye wall of the hurricane eh?

[BlueBrained]

LOL my tv just acted real strange, the voicing of it was all weird and glitching......CME effects? hehehee

Did you take your meds?

[BlueBrained]

You can always subscribe to http://spaceweatherphone.com/ and get a phone call when the Kp reaches your preset #.  I get a call anytime the Kp is 7 or higher, all X-Classl flares and CME's.

It is great!!!

[eclectical]

Blue, thats good and i know they do, but spaceweather isnt the most reliable at forecasting. this site is the best followed by nws.noaa.gov with spaceweather next.

[AuroraWatcher]

thanks for all the tips elec, i think i may do that, take my laptop outside, get comfy and watch the sites, and everything, post and watch my lost dvds, that way i dont miss a thing, hehehee

blue- LOL i swear it glitched and was weird, LOL but im on alot of med though where im sick, but i swear...the tv was weird, hahahaa

thanks everyone for all the tips, i really hope for some auroras tonight

[BlueBrained]

Blue, thats good and i know they do, but spaceweather isnt the most reliable at forecasting. this site is the best followed by nws.noaa.gov with spaceweather next.

But if they are calling when the Kp reaches a certain # it is a no brainer, you can't get that wrong.

I like this site but they do not update the watches and warnings nearly soon enough IMO.

Hell I could have issued the warning they put out for this flare 12 hours before it was posted.

[eclectical]

Blue, this site is pretty involved, plus they do a lot of stuff and lots of numbers have to be figured out before addressing an alert. big events can go like busts. the last big storm was just a glancing blow. this is more direct. so we'll c.. never know what will happen. good luck AW, but dont hurt your eyes. plus, im sure ull have pplenty more chances to see the lights again if u dont see it tonight.