Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WARNING 2012/03/07-09

[Ulrich Rieth]

Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WARNING
Issued: 7:00 UTC, 7 March 2012
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com

Auroral activity has intensified following the arrival of a moderately
strong coronal mass ejection. Activity is being observed into the northern
United States. There is a chance for periods of moderately strong
mid-latitude auroral activity during the next 72 hours. Tonight will be a
fair chance to spot activity, although the full moon will significantly
dampen the display. On the 8th and 9th, additional activity may be
observed if effects from recent major solar flaring are observed. Larger
auroral storms will be possible throughout the next 7 to 10 days as the
active sunspot complex rotates into a more favorable position for
producing Earth-bound impacts.

End of WARNING statement

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hi all!

This WARNING has to be extended.
SIDC (http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3) just send an analysis about last nights M6 flare and the corresponding CME.
More severe geomagnetic storming is due for 03/11-12!

Code:

:Issued: 2012 Mar 09 1058 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SOHO/LASCO detected a full halo CME in association with the M6.3 flare
in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) this morning. The CME first
appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view at 04:14 UT and had a speed
around 750 km/s. We expect the CME arrival at the Earth late on March 11
- early on March 12. An evaluation of the possible erupting flux rope
orientation on the basis of HMI photospheric magnetograms and AIA images
of the post-eruption arcade gives the south-east-north (SEN,
left-handed) configuration. Due to the position of the CME source region
close to the solar central meridian, we expect a nearly central
encounter of the resulting ICME, which will probably be a magnetic cloud
with leading southward field. A strong geomagnetic storm (K = 7 or
higher) is probable.