Long duration M1 flare with CME - auroral activity possible on 04th August

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hi all!

With 3 relatively big sunspot-groups on our star, solar activity is at least moderate since a couple of days.
Yesterday active region 11261 managed to explode in a long duration M1.4 flare.
The flare was associated with Type II and IV radiobursts, a 220 sfu tenflare and an earth directed full halo CME.
Interpreting STEREO beacon images, the dense parts of the plasma cloud are on a course directly towards our planet.
The solar terrestrial activity report (http://www.solen.info/solar/) gives an impact time after 09 UTC on August 04th.
NOAA SWPC has issued an A-index grreater 20 watch for August 5th.
In the ACE EPAM instruments, the early stages of a ramp like signature, indicating the CME arrival, are visible.
So the STAR timing might be correct.
Stay tuned for updates!
Clear skies!

 Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

We are just seeing another, this time a major solar flare from active region 11261.
The maximum was M5.9 and it is again a long duration event.
There should be another CME, but the position is more in the western half of the solar disc now.
Clear skies!

 Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

And yet another M9 flare from 11261.
As the region is moving more and more to the western solar limb, the CMEs should not be fully earth directed but may give lighter impacts anyway.
Clear skies!

 Ulrich