Heads Up APRIL 10- 11 2010

[bochaka]

Issued: 2010 Apr 09 1037 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A halo CME occurred on April 8th in conjunction with a B3.7 flare whose
peak time was around 03:25 UT.
Observations from the STEREO spacecraft indicate that the CME might be
Earth directed, with a possible arrival time at Earth on late April 10
or in the morning of April 11.
Geomagnetic storm from minor to major levels is possible.

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Details

[astrophoto]

The last geomagnetic storm that resulted from a CME coming from this sunspot had a Kp of 7, and that was because the Bz went rather strongly negative (correct me if I'm wrong here)

It makes me wonder if the Bz will go strongly negative with this CME as well, since it is coming from the same sunspot.

Thoughts?

Mark

[Graham Palmer]

I'm not sure how the IMF will respond for us this time, but I think we may expect impact within the next two or three hours going by the way the density is slowly rising...

Clear skies here but the sun is shining for a few hours yet.

Good luck, Graham.

[Kaimbridge M. GoldChild]

It appears to be a dud:

#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 106
Issue Time: 2010 Apr 11 0749 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2010 Apr 11 0713 UTC
Deviation: 6 nT
Station: Boulder

#-------------------------------------------------

> Period (UTC)  0000-0300       0300-0600       0600-0900       0900-1200
> Value          K    NT         K    NT         K    NT         K    NT
> K-index        1   10.5        0    4.0        2   11.2        1    4.8

     ~Kaimbridge~
 

[Ulrich Rieth]

Here comes the shock...finally.

MODERATE SHOCK DETECTED IN SOLAR WIND AT 11 04 2010 1213UT
      Mean Solar Wind Parameters Pre/Post Shock:
                               Pre        Post     Pre/Post
      Param.    Unit           Shock      Shock    Change
      Density   part/cc          1.1        3.6        2.5
      Velocity  km/sec         372.9      433.5       60.6
      Temp      Degree K     34140.4    62320.0    28179.6
      Bt        nT               4.3        8.4        4.2
      Bz        nT               0.3       -0.9       -1.2
ACE status at shock detection point:
ACE SWEPAM status: Data values are Nominal
ACE MAG status: Data values are Nominal


But I do not expect any storm from this one.
Cheers!

 Ulrich

BTW, the last G3 storm (max Kp7) was from anoth active region/filament eruption.

[Javamonkey27]

Damn, and the skies looked liked they would be clear here tonight too........

Dan.

[Graham Palmer]

Night is falling, Kp 7- and it's clear. I'm heading out...

[santa]

I hope you folks in Europe had a great display. By the time it was dark in Alaska, the Aurora was very, very dim, fully overhead and moving around slowly. Anyone coming outside and looking around would not have even seen a display. Only be looking straight up and gazing steadily could we discern the very light wisps. I hope others saw more than I but from about 11:30 PM (local time) to about 1:30 AM there was nothing. Frustrating.

[auroradude]

I was just heading out of Fairbanks towards Nenana and saw some nice activity above the strong twilight about 11:00 p.m. but had it faded to a very diffuse arc as you described by 11:30.